Iran Revolution?

[diaperedteenager]

With the turmoil after the eledged "fraud" election, do you think that there could be a revolution in Iran(once again)? I personally think there is definatly grounds for one. If one does go down, I hope it is not just some "lame" 2 day one. I want to see something on the scale of the French Revolution in Iran. Something that will reshape the East as the French rev. reshapped the west.

 

[WoodlandWanderer]

By the amount of demonstration there has been with protests every day I don't think it will go away without a recount. But even this may cause problems:
True believers that the vote was rigged will still think that if the vote comes out the same.
If it swaps then we will probably have the same situation but with people on opposite sides and the overall situation may not improve.
If it were to show the same result but with the margin significantly less then they might believe it was not rigged, but would then have immense anger over the fact they were obviously rigged in the first place. Therefore having good reason to mistrust the rulers, causing many problems.

I'm not sure about a revolution, that may be expecting a bit much, but they have to play this carefully, and remember that the people are the real power. If you have 20,000 demonstrators you can't shoot them all, and if you did you would attract huge amounts of negative attention from the west and we could end up like Iraq again.

 

[Darkfinn]

I doubt that it will happen. Iran's president (can't even begin to spell his name) has the loyalty of the Army... so that's all that really matters. They can crush the civil protests pretty much at will... and I don't think they are too concerned with what the rest of the world thinks of them at this point.

 

[MysteriousVisitor]

They already had one once. It would not be surprising if they had a "counter-revolution" today. Khamenei seems to be playing his cards pretty close to his chest right now, but if this wave of popular support for Mousavi continues, he might have to give in if he and his clerical elite want to maintain their power.

The military is also a big question right now. From what I've understood, the generals of todays Iranian military are pretty resentful towards the Revolutionary Guard for essentially forming a religiously based military totally apart from the mainstream. Also, several generals were arrested not too long ago. If the military decides to stage a coup (or a counter coup) following this wave of popular support, it might get interesting.

Also, the MSM coverage of Iran has sucked horribly.

 

[WoodlandWanderer]

yes they can crush all the protests but is it in their best interests? For a start look at the differences between them and N Korea when it comes to nuclear power. The west is letting the Iranians develop it to an extent because they claim it is their right to use that sort technology to power their country, whereas the N Koreans are criticised for anything nuclear they do.

I think especially at these turbulent times over nuclear capability, the last thing they want to do is anything that gives the west reason to bring sanctions against them for any reason.

 

[MysteriousVisitor]

This has nothing to do with nuclear weapons or the west.

This is about an election that the Iranian elite stole from the people. And not a Bush-Gore "its possible that if everything was counted Gore could have won", its "Holy shit, the guy polling at 60% just lost every major city and his hometown by over 55%".

 

[NoahKokoro]

I might be idealistic in my view, but I don't think there will be another revolution. This is mostly because I believe that the media is just trying to sell a story by making it bigger than it really is. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure plenty of people are pissed and protesting, but I honestly believe that it'll come down to one of two things occuring. One is that they re-count the votes and, no matter the outcome, the people calm down, because they are getting what they wanted. The second option is that the protests will eventually subside anyways.

 

[secretdl26]

I don't believe that a full-blown revolution is very likely. There will definitely be continued political unrest, demonstrations (both peaceful and violent), and "concern" from other countries both in and out of the Middle East. I think that while it is definitely up to the Iranian people to figure out the solution to the problem, there should be a neutral "watchdog" who can determine the validity of the election in order to provide the people of Iran with the true results.

However, the politics of Iran will not change significantly even if the reform candidate (Mir Hossein Mousavi) wins. The country is still controlled by the idealistic and extremely conservative Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) and the Guardian Counsel. Without the change of these two political and social controls, the Iranian political atmosphere will not change.

 

[Butterfly Mage]

The only way that the Dictator of Iran is going to be removed is through a bullet. Dictators never voluntarily withdraw from their places of power. Since the army is fully loyal to the current administration, the chance of a revolution seems slim.

 

[Corri]

Since the army is fully loyal to the current administration, the chance of a revolution seems slim.

Not true, the more power the army has over a people the more likely a revolution. It is likely that even the army will turn against itself in a time of civil unrest. I don't see a revolution coming to Iran... yet.In the very near future... yes, right now? No.

 

[Butterfly Mage]

I hope you're right. Theocracies seem to enforce some of the most brutal forms of oppression around.

 

[Corri]

I hope you're right. Theocracies seem to enforce some of the most brutal forms of oppression around.

Yes, and they always end bloodily, destroyed by their people.

 

[Fire2box]

Well if the majority of the citizens revolted then I don't see how they could really lose. Of course it would be a long and bloody battle. But if the army wins and kills most of them where does that leave Iran as a country with more then half if it's population killed off by it's own doing.

 

[Jaiden]

It's an interesting scenario because it almost seems to me that Khameni and Ahmadinejad have intended a deliberate provocation of their critics.

Ahmadinejad winning the election wouldn't really come as a huge surprise as he enjoys solid support among the rural areas of the country and the less well off, but the margin of his victory seems incredibly unlikely; it's just hard to see where the extra votes come from to warrant such an increase in support when criticism of him has increased in recent times. There has, then, obviously been some manipulation and some things are patently implausible and suggest fraud - Mousavi, the opposition candidate, failing to win in his own province, the other two candidates receiving fewer votes than there are members of their parties, and reports of turnout in some areas exceeding 100%. The point is that this was unsubtle fraud, so either it's down to incompetence or it was deliberate and meant to draw out the reformers and the critics - typically the young, educated urban types who threatened the established theocracy - so that the government and the old way could crack down on them and assert authority. Some of Ahmadinejad's language seems to back that up as he has been fairly needlessly provocative and contemptuous. It's a new world, Iran is an extremely youthful country and a lot of young people have been exposed to a lot of foreign culture and ideas - Obama in the White House also changes things hugely, of course - and the puritanical brand of Islam that has ruled the country for a long time doesn't know how to deal with this. Perhaps then, they've responded how most panicking authoritarian governments do - a display of force. It's simply that they needed to manufacture an excuse for it.

So, no, I don't think there will be a revolution and I think this is quite possibly fairly well managed if not necessarily actually a wise move. I imagine the protests will dissipate eventually and while there will some permanent damage to the government's authority, it sadly won't be in the arenas that really count.

But that's just how I read the logic of what the powers that be have done there.

 

[MysteriousVisitor]

Jimminy jeez golly whiz, what do we have here?

The proof is here. The election was stolen. The regime's grip is loosening. Clerics are gathering in Qom to oust the Supreme Leader, Army special forces are protecting protesters from the religious police (after a dozen generals were arrested), and now the letter saying that Ahmadinejad won only 12% of the vote.

Something is coming.

 

[Jaiden]

Jimminy jeez golly whiz, what do we have here?

The proof is here. The election was stolen. The regime's grip is loosening. Clerics are gathering in Qom to oust the Supreme Leader, Army special forces are protecting protesters from the religious police (after a dozen generals were arrested), and now the letter saying that Ahmadinejad won only 12% of the vote.

Something is coming.

Hm. I've got to say that Ahmadinejad winning only 12% of the vote seems around as likely as him managing to win 63% of the vote to me. He does still have significant support.

I'm afraid I have to be rather skeptical about the veracity of the letter.

 

[MysteriousVisitor]

Hm. I've got to say that Ahmadinejad winning only 12% of the vote seems around as likely as him managing to win 63% of the vote to me. He does still have significant support.

I'm afraid I have to be rather skeptical about the veracity of the letter.

Why? He was polling very low (albeit not as low as this would suggest) even before the Obama speech in Cairo, which many have said was very influential on the Iranian electorate.

Either way, its nigh impossible that the counts as released by the Iranian interior ministry was the real count. Its obvious that Ahmadinejad did not win. And I suppose its possible that he lost by this margin. Also, consider the size and activities of not just the protests, but the goings on with the Guardian council and the Army. If the counts were even close to 50/50, then why would the Guardians even consider sticking their necks out and ousting Khamenei? Why would Khamenei feel so threatened by an army that has thusfar been completely loyal to him that he had the Revolutionary Guard arrest a dozen army generals?

 

[Jaiden]

Why? He was polling very low (albeit not as low as this would suggest) even before the Obama speech in Cairo, which many have said was very influential on the Iranian electorate.

Either way, its nigh impossible that the counts as released by the Iranian interior ministry was the real count. Its obvious that Ahmadinejad did not win. And I suppose its possible that he lost by this margin. Also, consider the size and activities of not just the protests, but the goings on with the Guardian council and the Army. If the counts were even close to 50/50, then why would the Guardians even consider sticking their necks out and ousting Khamenei? Why would Khamenei feel so threatened by an army that has thusfar been completely loyal to him that he had the Revolutionary Guard arrest a dozen army generals?

The polls, comments and predictions I saw before the election seemed to suggest that it was quite close. There were a few putting Mousavi on top and a few putting Ahmadinejad on top (including, if I remember, one poll done by an independent American organisation). Look back a couple of years and Ahmadinejad had extremely strong approval ratings and he still has a very sold base in rural areas and amongst the poor. Mousavi's supporters are vocal but his appeal is limited to more urban areas - where we're seeing the protests - and there are also an awful lot of more conservative and traditional voters who still support the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad out there.

It's encouraging that some high-profile establishment people are breaking ranks, but these are significant protests and it's inevitable that there are some reverberations higher up and that some are trying to capture a sentiment. Maybe Khamenei feels threatened or maybe he's jumping on an opportunity to clear out some of those in the army who just aren't quite as loyal as he'd like.

I wouldn't have been surprised if Ahmadinejad has lost narrowly, and I certainly don't believe he got the votes he's being credited with, but 12% and third place? Doesn't make any sense to me. The ideology he represents hasn't collapsed that much nor have the demographics yet shifted to quite such an extent, much as I would like it to be so.