How many? What are the chances?

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dlfe77

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What are the chances of being an abdl? What I mean is that there are statistics for everything... so what are your chances of being an abdl? For example 1out of 50, 1 out of 100? Does anyone have an idea?
 

RMS401

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There's no real way of knowing, of course. I've heard that gay people make up 10% of the population, but we'll never really know because some people will never be open about that kind of thing. If I had to hazard a guess about AB/DL folks, I'd say we're probably one in many tens of thousands. But, again, that's a total stab in the dark.

-RMS
 

adasterix

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What, you mean this question wasn't on your census form a year or two ago?
Can I possibly have been the only one? (What are _those_ chances?)

(Oh, maybe it was the census worker asking on their own after I'd answered the door padded.)
</smileyface/>
 
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Fire2box

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if I had to guess.

1 in 5,000 at best.
1 in 300,000 at worst.
 

Astatine

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The people at diaperalliancefoundation.org did a bit of number crunching based on the memberstatistics of ABDL-online-communities (which is apt, since most of the community activity is online-based) and they state that 1 out of 2000 people is ABDL. Their numbers are based on the french community (mostly abkingdom), but I did almost the same procedure (had to come up with it myself, since I had no idea that something like DAF existed) some time ago for Munich and Germany and my numbers are quite similar. Problem is that the numbers are nowhere near exactly, so it's more like a rough estimation, but still realistic. There cannot be a lot more ABDL, since it would be more visible in the offline world (in terms of diaper sales or general public awareness; even among kinkfolks ABDL is rather exotic) but there cannot be a lot less either.
 

soggyboy

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I would imagine that most ab/dl folks would be active online. I mean, let's face it, it's not the sort of thing that you have the opportunity to openly discuss elsewhere.
And one common thread on adsic, regardless of which forum you read, AB, DL, Furry or Sissy, is the need/want to discuss things and either give or take assurance to each other.
This theory would obviously only apply to "First-World" countries as I'm guessing that people in other countries probably have more things to worry about, like surviving!
To crunch the numbers, I think the online community would be the only formula you could work from.
 

MegaChar

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Im being conservative but 1 in a 1000 is about what it seems.
60% are in the closet
25% Know that they do but rather not explore it
15% have opened up in some way and are embracing it.
 
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The people at diaperalliancefoundation.org did a bit of number crunching based on the memberstatistics of ABDL-online-communities (which is apt, since most of the community activity is online-based) and they state that 1 out of 2000 people is ABDL. Their numbers are based on the french community (mostly abkingdom), but I did almost the same procedure (had to come up with it myself, since I had no idea that something like DAF existed) some time ago for Munich and Germany and my numbers are quite similar. Problem is that the numbers are nowhere near exactly, so it's more like a rough estimation, but still realistic. There cannot be a lot more ABDL, since it would be more visible in the offline world (in terms of diaper sales or general public awareness; even among kinkfolks ABDL is rather exotic) but there cannot be a lot less either.

Could you explain how you know it would not be a lot less? I'm actually surprised by how common that would be. In terms of world population, you're suggesting that there are several million ABDLs, which is higher than I would have guessed.
 

ClandestineWing

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I mentioned in another thread that my best guess would be .000005% of the world population, which falls into tens of thousands of people. Maybe I'd go far enough to say hundreds of thousands.

The chance of becoming ABDL however, I wouldn't be able to put my finger on. There are many many factors that contribute to this, and everyone here seems to have a different story on how they became ABDL. It's hard to say.
 
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acorn

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There's no real way of knowing, of course. I've heard that gay people make up 10% of the population, but we'll never really know because some people will never be open about that kind of thing. If I had to hazard a guess about AB/DL folks, I'd say we're probably one in many tens of thousands. But, again, that's a total stab in the dark.

-RMS
My question is, what makes people identify?

If at any time 10% declare as gay, is this is of the ?% of the population that are sexually active, or ?% of the overall population? I'm suggesting there is a profound difference between the two! Or put another way, traditionally a person would not declare as being gay if they were not currently sexually active - this fact alone would tilt any attempt at statistics.
 

Astatine

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Could you explain how you know it would not be a lot less? I'm actually surprised by how common that would be. In terms of world population, you're suggesting that there are several million ABDLs, which is higher than I would have guessed.

Ya, sorry, my thought process somehow stopped at that point ;)

I don't know, to be honest, but still this approach gives you a bit of room to think about the problem:

Let's think of this 0,05% as a baseline: That's the average percentage of a population registered in ABDL-online-communities. It becomes kind of a expected value so to speak and it's also not completely senseless is kind of a minimum, since most of the communities activity happen online, as said before. If however the 'real' number would only be say 0,025% (or even less), it would imply, that half of all registered members (or more) are fakes or not into ABDL.

But there are still things to be taken into account:

- Cultural diversity; not necessarily a west-vs-rest-divide, but I guess a crucial part of a diaper fetish is having access to diapers (question there would be if sexual fetishism is a human universal or not, infantilism could also work without diapers). Still it seems that in 'the west' there are more ABDL then anywhere else. The 0,05% are a number based on western population, let's not forget about that, it could be very different on a global perspective
- Not everyone has access to the internet, even here
- Not everyone wants to join online communities
- I, for example, wouldn't show up in any Germany-based statistic of that kind, as I'm not registered (anymore) in any german community
- Not everyone states his country of origin
- Multimembership; someone could be registered in several communities
- There definitely are fakes and people not into ABDL registered in online-communities



It gives us a nice idea of how to do that kind of a survey, even though it's not perfect. There is much room left to improve the process but again, I don't think that the numbers are too unrealistic. And 0,05% isn't that big of a number either. That would be 25 ABDL at my university, for example, which is easily possible (in fact, I'm one of this 25).

---

At least their numbers aren't completely random: of all 61500 members on abkingdom, about 17000 are from France
 
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