2019 European Elections

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The second biggest democratic exercise in the world is underway until Sunday - 28 countries are electing the 715 members of the European Parliament, who represent over half a billion people, with results being revealed on Sunday. I figured it deserved its own thread. As a reminder to the EU citizens on the board: get out and vote!

The usual storylines are Europhile vs. Euroskeptic parties, but with over 30 different elections going on at once there are a lot of interesting storylines.

Here are some of the storylines I am watching - admittedly I am watching the results out of France and the UK much closer than the results of the other countries. It would be interesting to see what other people are going to be looking at.
  • Austria: we have our first look at the electoral consequences the suspiciously well-timed Ibiza-Affäre, the scandal that has recently rocked Austrian politics and forced the far-right Eurosceptic Freedom Party to leave the coalition government, forcing the right wing Austrian People's Party to call new elections. If the Freedom Party can maintain ~20% of the votes and keep their four seats it will show that they can weather the storm with their base.
  • Czechia: The Czech Pirate Party is second in the polls and has an outside shot of overtaking the centrist Yes party to win the plurality.
  • Germany: Both the centre-right Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats appear to be headed towards losses to the Greens and the Euroskeptic Alternative for Germany. The Greens have a chance of being the second biggest party. However, despite their loss of popularity the Christian Democrats are poised to continue being by far the biggest party in Germany. An always depressing sideplot: whether the neo-Nazi NDP party will clear the 1% threshold and maintain their lone seat.
  • Spain: Vox, a Euroskeptic far-right party, looks to enter the European parliament for the first time and should clear the threshold easily.
  • France: A juicy rematch of the 2017 presidential election is brewing. le Pen's National Rally and Macron's La République en Marche are virtually tied for first in the polls. However, even if the National Rally wins the election they will likely lose seats. Continuing on the theme of 2017, the centre-right Republicans and the centre-left Socialists are both facing big loses, with the Socialists facing an uphill battle just to clear the 5% threshold necessary to win any seat. The far-left Unbowed France is looking to benefit from the ongoing fall of the Socialist party to entrench itself as France's fourth party.
  • Greece: This is one of the few countries where we can expect to see Euroskeptics basically get whipped out, due to the fall in popularity of populist parties both on the left and the right.
  • Italy: The populist coalition of the far-right The League and the populist 5-Star Movement are out to prove that their general election win wasn't a fluke. The polls suggest that they will finish as the two biggest parties. The two big centrist party, the Democratic Party and Forza Italia, will try to limit their losses. If the polls are to be believe Italy will have a huge swing towards electing Euroskeptic MEPs.
  • Netherlands: I am including this one because they have already voted and we have exit poll data. The centre-left Labour party appears to have won an upset victory despite only polling in third place.
  • United Kingdom: What a right old mess, they shouldn't even be in the EU by now. This will be the most overanalyzed election of the year. Nigel Farage's Brexit party is on pace to win, roughly matching the 2014 result of... Nigel Farage's UKIP party. The centrist, hard Europhile Liberal-Democrat are attempting to go ahead of the Labour party to take the mantle as being the main anti-Brexit party. The Conservative party is in real danger of falling to fifth place behing the Greens (!), which would be a shocking embarrassment for Theresa May (if she is still Prime Minister by Sunday night). Fun sideplots to watch: whether the unfortunetly named "Change UK - The Independent Group" and UKIP win any seats.
Some big picture stories: The centre-right European People's Party group and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats should finish as the top two groups but are both facing big loses. The centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe + Macron's En March should make big gains and become the third biggest group. Two Euroskeptic group, Salvini's European Alliance of People and Nations, lead by Italy's The League and France's National Rally, along with the 5Star + Brexit Party Group, will make big gains. The biggest loser of this election should be the traditional right wing European Conservatives and Reformists group.
 

SgtOddball

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  • United Kingdom: What a right old mess, they shouldn't even be in the EU by now.
A lot of us here in the UK feel the same, probably why the Brexit Party is making such huge gains.
 

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So far the results seem to indicate a big rise for the populist Euroskeptic parties, for the Greens and for the Europhile centrist parties at the expense of the traditional right and the traditional left. In both Germany and France the Greens are now the leading left-wing party.

This will be the first time that the EPP (centre-right) and the S&P (centre-left) won't be able to form a coalition on their own. They will need the support of either the Greens or the centrist parties to govern.
 
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Seasonedcitizen

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Don't stay home and them moan about the results. The direction your country takes depends on the number of people who vote. The politicians work for you. Keep their feet to the fire so they don't forget that fact. Government service is not a life time job. Serve the people and go back to your previous profession and life.
 

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In the UK this is a result both leavers and remainders will spin as a victory, and frankly, they both have a case. The big losers are the parties that don't have a hardline view on Brexit (so basically the Conservatives and Labour, who combined for less than 25% of the votes). There won't be any compromise.

The Greek government has already fallen over the result of these elections, and there is a chance Germany's governing coalition will collapse.
 

SgtOddball

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Already you got Remain voters claiming more people voted for remain parties while counting Labor which, by its manifesto, supports Leaving the EU with a Customs Union as a Remain party, and not counting the Conservatives as a Leave party despite, again, their manifesto stating they would work to Leave the EU.
 

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Already you got Remain voters claiming more people voted for remain parties while counting Labor which, by its manifesto, supports Leaving the EU with a Customs Union as a Remain party, and not counting the Conservatives as a Leave party despite, again, their manifesto stating they would work to Leave the EU.
I think it's fair to exclude both Labour and the Conservatives when counting "remain" vs. "leave" votes in these elections. I don't think anybody who's main issue was Brexit was voting for either of those parties.
 

trysexiea

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For France, the results don't surprise me sadly, it's basically what I expected it can happen, basically in France people have some unrealizable expectations and the FN (I know name as changed) do exactly the same as the last french election (Promise to do everything that people hope, even if it's totally impossible. and this political party has a past, and a present, very sulfurous. But basically what happened in first French expect to go back to "les 50 glorieuses" (it's a time when the country had full employment) thing that can't happen nowadays because how the world works, French people want also to have no hard work like in building construction, French people want also stay with all social security we have already, want also retire as soon as possible (the actual age for retirement is not even sustainable by the current pension system). so people (a small part) went out into the street to protest (the yellow vests) but he had no clear claims, and not even sustainable... . and because the government don't offer the thing that he can't offer anyway (I don't consider this government has a good government, but I realistic of what he can or what he can't do) but anyway the yellow vests is Born on social network, and what you find principaly in social network Propaganda, and Fake news there also a lot of channel or website of re-information (which is basically the manipulation of information) (I know a lot of country have the manipulation of information problem).

Personally I did not vote, why because I realized that there were elections less than a week before, so I have decided it's to know all candidate and what it wants to do and what it can do (something that is really different) I don't want to only read the paper I have received (because the paper is always false it's here for publicity not for honesty ...) so I preferred not to vote than, vote for Whatever as half of the voters do.
 

SlashNBurn

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Already you got Remain voters claiming more people voted for remain parties while counting Labor which, by its manifesto, supports Leaving the EU with a Customs Union as a Remain party, and not counting the Conservatives as a Leave party despite, again, their manifesto stating they would work to Leave the EU.
A Eurosceptic friend on Twitter today claimed that the vote share between “Leave” and “Remain” supporting parties was, exactly the same as it has been for “Leave” and “Remain” three years ago. I don’t know how right or wrong that claim is.
 

SgtOddball

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I think it's fair to exclude both Labour and the Conservatives when counting "remain" vs. "leave" votes in these elections. I don't think anybody who's main issue was Brexit was voting for either of those parties.
I disagree as we have to still count them based on their current manifestos. However at the end of the day it is just clutching at straws.
 
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Seasonedcitizen

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The big question is Freedom. Do you want to be ruled by people who hopefully have your values or by foreigners with their own agendas? Why should the Germans retire late in life while others retire early? Why should any government have to be responsible for another's bad decisions?
 

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The big question is Freedom. Do you want to be ruled by people who hopefully have your values or by foreigners with their own agendas? Why should the Germans retire late in life while others retire early? Why should any government have to be responsible for another's bad decisions?
The UK can leave whenever it wants. The problem is that the UK government both wants to leave and have benefits that the EU doesn't extend to third parties. In fact, the great irony is that the EU government seems more keen to see the UK leave than the UK government itself.

Also, given that the EU is a democratic institution I'm not sure how fundamentally different it is for a German MEP to have a say over British affairs as it is for a Floridian Congress critter to have a say over Alaskan affairs. The EU is a common market, so obviously they need to have common regulations for internal trade, just like every other common market does.
 
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SgtOddball

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The UK can leave whenever it wants. The problem is that the UK government both wants to leave and have benefits that the EU doesn't extend to third parties. In fact, the great irony is that the EU government seems more keen to see the UK leave than the UK government itself.

Also, given that the EU is a democratic institution I'm not sure how fundamentally different it is for a German MEP to have a say over British affairs as it is for a Floridian Congress critter to have a say over Alaskan affairs. The EU is a common market, so obviously they need to have common regulations for internal trade, just like every other common market does.
It refers to itself as a Democratic institution, in reality it is not Democratic. Really it should have stayed as the EEC rather than turn into an entity that wants to form a European Super State.
 

mistral

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It refers to itself as a Democratic institution, in reality it is not Democratic. Really it should have stayed as the EEC rather than turn into an entity that wants to form a European Super State.
It clearly is democratic hence the election of representatives to the European Parliament. It's not perfect and could be more accountable to the people of Europe but that could be said of any democracy could it not?
 

SgtOddball

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It clearly is democratic hence the election of representatives to the European Parliament. It's not perfect and could be more accountable to the people of Europe but that could be said of any democracy could it not?
Just because there are elected representatives does not mean it is democratic, it only provides the illusion of democracy.
 

SgtOddball

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It's the principle of all modern democratic system no ? xD
True, but I think the EU takes the cake here, the EU Migration quota for example I do not see as being democratic, as it should be upto the individual country rather than some bureaucrat who probably hasn't even been there, which is the primary reason why the EU is has been in a Migration crisis and why EU Skepticism has seen a sharp rise.
 

trysexiea

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True, but I think the EU takes the cake here, the EU Migration quota for example I do not see as being democratic, as it should be upto the individual country rather than some bureaucrat who probably hasn't even been there, which is the primary reason why the EU is has been in a Migration crisis and why EU Skepticism has seen a sharp rise.
Immigration is a complicated thing without any real solutions, it is possible to integrate people with skills, but it is not possible to integrate all the misery of other countries at war, (yes it is to make the selection), but our world work like this actually. But because human conscience ECT we can't do this actually, so if you ask all individual country in Europe none will accept to have random immigration, so if the Europe don't force the country to do it none of them will accept the immigration.

To be clear I do not know what we can do with the unqualified person, but we can't accept it anyway

Anyway it's a very complicated things so I will avoid to go more on it.
 
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SgtOddball

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Immigration is a complicated thing without any real solutions, it is possible to integrate people with skills, but it is not possible to integrate all the misery of other countries at war, (yes it is to make the selection), but our world work like this actually. But because human conscience ECT we can't do this actually, so if you ask all individual country in Europe none will accept to have random immigration, so if the Europe don't force the country to do it none of them will accept the immigration.

To be clear I do not know what we can do with the unqualified person, but we can't accept it anyway

Anyway it's a very complicated things so I will avoid to go more on it.
However when we recieve immigrants who wish not to integrate with the country's laws, customs and culture it no longer becomes immigration but invasion (and yes I am talking about the Refugee/Migrant Crisis, which even by the UN's admission, only 4% were legitimate Refugees). And the current situation we find ourselves in is not about Human conscience, but a political elite that just doesn't care about its own citizenry.
 
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