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Thread: Iran Revolution?

  1. #1

    Default Iran Revolution?

    With the turmoil after the eledged "fraud" election, do you think that there could be a revolution in Iran(once again)? I personally think there is definatly grounds for one. If one does go down, I hope it is not just some "lame" 2 day one. I want to see something on the scale of the French Revolution in Iran. Something that will reshape the East as the French rev. reshapped the west.

  2. #2


    By the amount of demonstration there has been with protests every day I don't think it will go away without a recount. But even this may cause problems:
    True believers that the vote was rigged will still think that if the vote comes out the same.
    If it swaps then we will probably have the same situation but with people on opposite sides and the overall situation may not improve.
    If it were to show the same result but with the margin significantly less then they might believe it was not rigged, but would then have immense anger over the fact they were obviously rigged in the first place. Therefore having good reason to mistrust the rulers, causing many problems.

    I'm not sure about a revolution, that may be expecting a bit much, but they have to play this carefully, and remember that the people are the real power. If you have 20,000 demonstrators you can't shoot them all, and if you did you would attract huge amounts of negative attention from the west and we could end up like Iraq again.

  3. #3


    I doubt that it will happen. Iran's president (can't even begin to spell his name) has the loyalty of the Army... so that's all that really matters. They can crush the civil protests pretty much at will... and I don't think they are too concerned with what the rest of the world thinks of them at this point.

  4. #4


    They already had one once. It would not be surprising if they had a "counter-revolution" today. Khamenei seems to be playing his cards pretty close to his chest right now, but if this wave of popular support for Mousavi continues, he might have to give in if he and his clerical elite want to maintain their power.

    The military is also a big question right now. From what I've understood, the generals of todays Iranian military are pretty resentful towards the Revolutionary Guard for essentially forming a religiously based military totally apart from the mainstream. Also, several generals were arrested not too long ago. If the military decides to stage a coup (or a counter coup) following this wave of popular support, it might get interesting.

    Also, the MSM coverage of Iran has sucked horribly.

  5. #5


    yes they can crush all the protests but is it in their best interests? For a start look at the differences between them and N Korea when it comes to nuclear power. The west is letting the Iranians develop it to an extent because they claim it is their right to use that sort technology to power their country, whereas the N Koreans are criticised for anything nuclear they do.

    I think especially at these turbulent times over nuclear capability, the last thing they want to do is anything that gives the west reason to bring sanctions against them for any reason.

  6. #6


    This has nothing to do with nuclear weapons or the west.

    This is about an election that the Iranian elite stole from the people. And not a Bush-Gore "its possible that if everything was counted Gore could have won", its "Holy shit, the guy polling at 60% just lost every major city and his hometown by over 55%".

  7. #7


    I might be idealistic in my view, but I don't think there will be another revolution. This is mostly because I believe that the media is just trying to sell a story by making it bigger than it really is. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure plenty of people are pissed and protesting, but I honestly believe that it'll come down to one of two things occuring. One is that they re-count the votes and, no matter the outcome, the people calm down, because they are getting what they wanted. The second option is that the protests will eventually subside anyways.

  8. #8


    I don't believe that a full-blown revolution is very likely. There will definitely be continued political unrest, demonstrations (both peaceful and violent), and "concern" from other countries both in and out of the Middle East. I think that while it is definitely up to the Iranian people to figure out the solution to the problem, there should be a neutral "watchdog" who can determine the validity of the election in order to provide the people of Iran with the true results.

    However, the politics of Iran will not change significantly even if the reform candidate (Mir Hossein Mousavi) wins. The country is still controlled by the idealistic and extremely conservative Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) and the Guardian Counsel. Without the change of these two political and social controls, the Iranian political atmosphere will not change.

  9. #9
    Butterfly Mage


    The only way that the Dictator of Iran is going to be removed is through a bullet. Dictators never voluntarily withdraw from their places of power. Since the army is fully loyal to the current administration, the chance of a revolution seems slim.

  10. #10


    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly Mage View Post
    Since the army is fully loyal to the current administration, the chance of a revolution seems slim.
    Not true, the more power the army has over a people the more likely a revolution. It is likely that even the army will turn against itself in a time of civil unrest. I don't see a revolution coming to Iran... yet.In the very near future... yes, right now? No.

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