Only fifty days out now and it's an incredibly interesting time in British politics and more or less impossible to make any kind of confident prediction (other than, perhaps, that the Lib Dems will be torn to shreds).
The Tory party is still basically - rightly - toxic, having not won a general election in twenty-three years. Looking at their record in this government and their popularity I can't see that changing. If they couldn't do it last time round in just about the best possible circumstances for them I can't see them doing it now.
The Tories do have the advantage of a leader who polls above his party - the opposite scenario to Labour - and that will help them in the campaign if they manage to frame it as a question of "which of these two men do you want to be PM?". Having said that the political landscape is changing so rapidly it really isn't that simple anymore. I don't think those binary arguments or indeed the likes of the 'vote Salmond, get Cameron' type case Labour is trying to make in Scotland or the 'vote Farage, get Miliband' case the Tories are making in England actually has that much resonance with a lot of people. So many voters - especially younger voters - are so disengaged from the old structure that if they want to vote Green/SNP/UKIP that's just what they will do.
So, it's basically anyone's guess how things while shake down and who will try and form a government after the vote. There doesn't seem to be enough enthusiasm behind either of the two big parties to suggest a majority and if I had to guess I would say the most likely outcome is whoever has the most seats out of Labour and the Tories trying to form a minority government, such is the public distaste for coalitions after these last five years. Though that could prove seriously problematic if it doesn't correspond with the share of the vote as is perfectly possible thanks to the eccentricities of our electoral system. I certainly think a much diminished Lid Dem presence in parliament managing to cling onto government would go down very poorly with the public and find it hard to see as a likely outcome. Likewise a UKIP or SNP presence in government for different reasons.
As for me personally, I shall vote Labour without any great enthusiasm but because they remain the only possible vessel for anything like the kind of progress I would like to see. Their lack of courage and conviction is incredibly frustrating and I wish they could be bolder and pursue policies that were distinctive and I'm confident would actually be popular with voters if not the political and media establishment (see: public ownership of the railways), but there's still not a credible alternative for me. Miliband himself is an odd figure; that the things he is best known for - his ability to eat a sandwich, latterly how many kitchens he has apparently... - are so utterly trivial and politically irrelevant is an indictment both of the media and the man, I suppose.