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Thread: Aye or nay, Scotland

  1. #1

    Default Aye or nay, Scotland

    So today is the day, Scotland votes for it's independence, or not.

    I have noticed some users from GB on this forum, I was curious, what is your opinion on this? Of course non GB citizen are also welcome to share their opinion.

    Is it even possible? Wise? Are they going to do it?

    What are they going to do if their pleas are ignored by European courts to remain part of the EU, and it's application are met with a Spanish veto?

    Do they have the economy, besides their oil, to sustain theirselfs?

    I'm having a hard time understanding the whole situation in detail as a non GB citizen, so I'm very curious what other people might think of it.

  2. #2

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    Some insight would be appreciated here as well. Or just links to decent commentary in the papers.

  3. #3

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    No, I think it's a bad idea. The yes campaigners have glossed over the economic issues as if they were non-existent. Such as their share of the debt, a currency union, the amount of oil left, the fact that businesses are making serious contingency plans, that economists have predicted economic downturn. Then there's the damage to the UK. At the moment there are a few things that maintain its international prominence. Its membership of NATO, the EU, and the UN Security Council. With the ending of the union, British military prestige which has already been gutted will suffer further reduction. To be an effective party in the alliance we need a strong military, losing a significant part of it could damage UK ability to act as an effective fighting force. Our role in the EU would also be curtailed, a significant portion of MEPs would be gone, and with a referendum coming up to leave the European Community, a further knock against Britain being a forceful power could collapse. The final aspect is UK membership of the UN security council. It is a permanent member, and speculation abounds about how China and Russia would argue that we no longer should play a role due to the breakup. Now to the socialists in the UK, a loss of prominence is their wet dream. But not to me. I am not a cheerleader for the empire days, but it is beneficial for the UK if it remains whole, and in the international community.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by SterlingArcher View Post
    No, I think it's a bad idea. The yes campaigners have glossed over the economic issues as if they were non-existent. Such as their share of the debt, a currency union, the amount of oil left, ....
    Well yes, I was somewhat surprised how easy many of these problems where ignored. I mean don't take it the wrong way if they want to become independent it's their choice. But England has said an independent Scotland will not be using the Pound, the European Commission has said Scotland will recieve no special treatment and will leave the Union and have to start a new application, an appilcation that needs an unanimous vote (all 28 states need to back it up) in the council of Europe (28 heads of state) while Spain has, not in exact words but one could conclude it, threatened to cast a veto to any independent Scotland with regards to Catalonia. But Salmond says "we will remain part of the EU and use the pound". Has he even been listening?

    As for the debt that would be an interesting matter. I can imagine all the debts of Scottish municipalities and local governments will be theirs, but I'm curious as to how the state debt will be shared. I think all the state debt will be for England, just because if they want to share the debt, they will also have to share the properties. Buildings, palaces, military equipment etc. I can imagine they could strike a deal, no debt no possesions.

    As far as your other points those are quite interesting. My opinion is we should join national armies and create one European army. Like we are doing with Germany with the new German-Dutch mechanized brigade. The EU combined has a defense budget more than Russia and China combined yet most of it's armies are in no way equiped for any long operations, and most of them even lack operational power. Together it can be much better. The EU has the largest naval force in the world, yet it means little at the moment when if the airforce starts bombing Libya, that tehn already we run out of ammunition in some armies(Denmark). the seat in the security council can then be brought to Brussels instead of France and Britain so that the entire EU has it's vote in that council. Because I can understand with the fall of Great Britian as a world power, especially if they leave the EU, there are other more important countries in this world that would like a seat. Like Germany, Italy, India or Brazil.

    I myself have been disapointed lately with the course England is moving. They are one of the founding fathers of modern day Europe, used to be very important, but have taken everything back and have been isolating themself more and more lately, for what I do not know. Because I do not see it is in their national interest. Yes there are a lot of problems, yes there is a long way to go, but in any case isolation from the European community isn't a solution. The solution is to be found together, and from this point the road can only lead up, not down.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by TenaM View Post
    Well yes, I was somewhat surprised how easy many of these problems where ignored. I mean don't take it the wrong way if they want to become independent it's their choice. But England has said an independent Scotland will not be using the Pound, the European Commission has said Scotland will recieve no special treatment and will leave the Union and have to start a new application, an appilcation that needs an unanimous vote (all 28 states need to back it up) in the council of Europe (28 heads of state) while Spain has, not in exact words but one could conclude it, threatened to cast a veto to any independent Scotland with regards to Catalonia. But Salmond says "we will remain part of the EU and use the pound". Has he even been listening?

    As for the debt that would be an interesting matter. I can imagine all the debts of Scottish municipalities and local governments will be theirs, but I'm curious as to how the state debt will be shared. I think all the state debt will be for England, just because if they want to share the debt, they will also have to share the properties. Buildings, palaces, military equipment etc. I can imagine they could strike a deal, no debt no possesions.

    As far as your other points those are quite interesting. My opinion is we should join national armies and create one European army. Like we are doing with Germany with the new German-Dutch mechanized brigade. The EU combined has a defense budget more than Russia and China combined yet most of it's armies are in no way equiped for any long operations, and most of them even lack operational power. Together it can be much better. The EU has the largest naval force in the world, yet it means little at the moment when if the airforce starts bombing Libya, that tehn already we run out of ammunition in some armies(Denmark). the seat in the security council can then be brought to Brussels instead of France and Britain so that the entire EU has it's vote in that council. Because I can understand with the fall of Great Britian as a world power, especially if they leave the EU, there are other more important countries in this world that would like a seat. Like Germany, Italy, India or Brazil.

    I myself have been disapointed lately with the course England is moving. They are one of the founding fathers of modern day Europe, used to be very important, but have taken everything back and have been isolating themself more and more lately, for what I do not know. Because I do not see it is in their national interest. Yes there are a lot of problems, yes there is a long way to go, but in any case isolation from the European community isn't a solution. The solution is to be found together, and from this point the road can only lead up, not down.
    I'm increasingly inclined to the idea of a federal Europe, as unified power. There is the valid complaint about an erosion of our national identity, but I don't see why a federalised European Union would prevent that. Due to the fact we have a multitude of languages, various regional dialects, and cuisine, entertainment and arts, cultural erosion seems unlikely. Take a look at the U.S. Each state and region has some cultural differences, just because the US is a collection of 50 of these doesn't mean annihilation of culture. Look at Louisiana for instance, the birthplace of Jazz, and a culinary epicentre, which I'm pretty sure is alive and well. New England and it's strong heritage of European culture remains. The deep south, where old fashioned courtesy and hospitality reign supreme. Yet they all comfortably live by the notion of E Pluribus Unum.

  6. #6

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    While I understand that the hope and optimism of what an independent Scotland *could* be--and can understand why many Scots would be tempted to vote yes...I'm also practical and realistic.

    In this day and age, for Scotland to break away from such a well established, stable, economically powerful country such as the UK would be self-defeating. The relationship is mutually beneficial, and any negatives Scotland faces are surely far outweighed by the positives of being part of the U.K.

    Maintaining a independent state is not easy, and an independence vote is a long term, irreversible decision. The UK has no obligation to be there to help out independent Scots in the event that something terrible happens and country making is not all roses and puppies like the 'Yes' campaign makes it out to be.

    That being said, it's their choice to make...and at the end of the day I have to believe that Scots will do what is best for their own country.

  7. #7

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    Indeed, I see no threat to any national identity, culture, heritage or anything related. The states will remain to exist with some national governing, and the Union will still be lead by these exact same states. We should make sure that we don't make a whole different loosely operating entity as a government, but keep it all combined. National governments leading the Union like is the case now.

    Many things can be done together. We already created a joint space agency (ESA) which is internationally appraised, so why not the same with military? Ambassies, consulates, foreign relations, energy procurement/production, infrastructure (time to cut different tax systems for roads) etc. etc.

    It can be much more efficient together than each on it;s own. But there is still a long way to go, and we shouldn't overhaste it in any sort, I only hope we don't do a step backwards for each step we do forward.

    We can even disband NATO, and form a different alliance without Turkey and foreign presence in Europe and such so we can provide for Greece, Cyprus and the rest, and finally recognize them as EU state borders.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by TenaM View Post
    As for the debt that would be an interesting matter. I can imagine all the debts of Scottish municipalities and local governments will be theirs, but I'm curious as to how the state debt will be shared. I think all the state debt will be for England, just because if they want to share the debt, they will also have to share the properties. Buildings, palaces, military equipment etc. I can imagine they could strike a deal, no debt no possesions.
    Not so fast, kimosabe. I'm sure a significant portion of the debt was accumulated via social spending, not just buying 'stuff'. Divvying up the debt will not be trivial.

    When the war devastated Balkans further balkanized themselves, there wasn't all that much to lose in the way of assets or currency value. Breaking up England and Scotland will be financially very messy, and have very significant negative impacts on both countries and their citizens, at least in the near term.

    I haven't been following the debate, so I'm not entirely sure what advantages the Scots see long term going out on their own. I imagine its the same sorts of things those of us in Illinois think about when we talk about throwing Chicago out of Illinois.

    Vladimir Putin is chuckling to himself and crossing off one more thing on his list of things to worry about. Napoleon and Hitler are watching with amusement somewhere in the Great Beyond.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxx View Post
    Not so fast, kimosabe. I'm sure a significant portion of the debt was accumulated via social spending, not just buying 'stuff'. Divvying up the debt will not be trivial.
    I'm not saying the debt wasn't more than the assets. In practical terms though, those assets are worth more then they are in the books.

    Imagine the queens palace being owned by Scotland and England. Do you think that's a desirable situation? I think not. And the palace is just a single example. Or imagine breaking up the military.

    I think England wouldn't mind to trade some things off.




    Quote Originally Posted by Maxx View Post
    Vladimir Putin is chuckling to himself and crossing off one more thing on his list of things to worry about. Napoleon and Hitler are watching with amusement somewhere in the Great Beyond.
    Vladimir has enough to worry about as it his. His government is stuck with it's hand in the pension jar, Gazprom has seen a 50% profit drop, Rosneft is asking 30 billion dollars of state support, Dobrolet has closed his doors, and they are ahaving a very hard time keeping the food prices in check, while the state is lecturing it's people what and what not to eat. By now Russia has lifted previous bans of seeds, and helped create an export path through Belorussia for some goods, which has led to funny campaigns on social media.

    Under normal circumstances russia would enter a recession by the end of 2014. With these sanctions Putins' position is becoming increasingly fragile. He could put on his big pants which he doesn't fit like they did in the time of the USSR, but we all know how that ended. But they do say, "a cornered cat makes strange jumps". Somebody should, when he is at it's end of it's Latin, offer him a way out without losing his face.
    Last edited by Wellust; 18-Sep-2014 at 17:16.

  10. #10

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    As a Canadian there is a lot of talk here about how similar this feels to the 1995 Quebec independence referendum. Hopefully the referendum swings clearly one way in the final hours, having barely a percentage point between the yes and the no leaves hurt feelings for just about everyone.

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