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Thread: Crimea and Russia...

  1. #1

    Default Crimea and Russia...

    From BBC News


    The peninsula of Crimea in southern Ukraine is at the centre of what is being seen as the biggest crisis between Russia and the West since the Cold War.
    What are your thoughts on this conflict?
    -Marka

  2. #2

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    I think Russia is try to restore the former soviet Union
    and then maybe go after europe after that
    I think Putin is a modern day Stalin or Hitler

  3. #3

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    Russia's seizing of Crimea was just criminal in my opinion. This happened in defiance of international rules and it's own treaty commitments.

    I don't believe that any 'referendum' has legitimacy or credibility when it is undertaken during a military takeover.

    Unfortunately, Ukraine is not a NATO ally. So while Russia has violated international law, it has not reached the level at which western military intervention is justified. I believe the Western countries are correct in beginning with an escalating series of responses, beginning with economic, trade, and visa sanctions. Sanctions can only be effective if they are coordinated with the entire alliance.
    Last edited by Starrunner; 29-Mar-2014 at 16:42.

  4. #4

    Default Crimea and Russia...

    Biggest crisis between the US and the West? No, that would be the Syria conflict, although that's more of a quiet behind the curtains sort of disagreement.

    The Crimea move was a bit more brazen, but Putin is no idiot, and he's certainly not Hitler/Stalin, to say that is disrespectful to the millions of innocents those two men killed.

    He knows how to prod and provoke the West without risking a truly damaging response. Putin most likely has wanted to take Crimea for a while, the shakeup in Ukraine simply provided a launch point for him to do so.

    Regardless of what Obama says, US fronted sanctions aren't going to be effective at truly impacting Russia. The only real way to accomplish that would be for the EU to make a unified effort to punish Russia economically, and that probably isn't going to happen thanks to the shaky economy and Europe's reliance on Russian energy supplies.

    As for the annexation itself, I think it's Russia simply trying to make the best of a bad situation. They lost a strong ally in Yanukovych, and more or less ceded 90% of Ukraine to the more pro-EU government.
    Last edited by Dan09; 31-Mar-2014 at 15:02.

  5. #5

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    This situation is quite unclear. But for Russia Crimea is very important. There was a case when during Orange revolution in Ukraine some ukrainian politics threat Rusia that Ukraine will no more let Russian navy use crimean naval bases (as i recall corectly). So now Putin don't want put strategic naval forces at risk. If ukrainne would not alow rusian fleet to station in crimea then Russia will loos their ability to quick respond in whol mediterenian region. So Thats why Putin Takes Crimea. On another hand we see behaviour model like in 2008 in Georgia. Russians trying provoke escalation and start war with ukrainne to destroy this country military forces so ukrainne, and generaly destabilise alredy rather unstable situation to easy instal prorussia Goverment.

    What west should do ? Build LNG gas terminals, and find another way to get energy to europe. then let russian die in their own coutry without single shoot. After all their population growth is below 0 becouse of serious demographic troubles like alkoholism, drugs adiction and Aids. Ofcoure sanctions are two edge blade, and imposed in such short time will affect severly both sides, thats wy we should think about long term sanction and isolation of russia in all aspects of global relationship. this will be a bigest punishment.

    And ofcourse all european countries should think about building up stregth their defence forces.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by wetatnight View Post
    I think Russia is try to restore the former soviet Union
    and then maybe go after europe after that
    I think Putin is a modern day Stalin or Hitler
    Why on Earth would you think that Putin is then going to attack the rest of the European countries after he reforms, what you think, will be the Soviet Union?

    He's most likely just trying to unify lands that were once under Russian rule, regardless if the lands want it or not.

  7. #7

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    Criminal or not, Sevastopol is critical to the Russian navy and sea trade. Without that, they're limited to northern ports by the arctic circle. The Crimea has been an issue for centuries for just that reason. Then of course there are the gas pipelines.

    I get why Putin is doing it, and I get why he is doing it now. He sees Obama as weak and not a factor, at the same time he has Europe by the gonads as long as he controls their gas supply. A West-leaning Ukraine directly threatens that.

  8. #8

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    Nothing meaningful is going to happen to Russia because of this, Putin should actually be commended for how he pulled this off.

    He manged to turn a Western backed coup of an elected government into a situation that favors Russia and will create very little real backlash. Russia now has permanent access to a warm water port that can accommodate their largest ships and a buffer against US and NATO expansion in the region. There can be no outside military intervention since you'd be fighting right on Russia's doorstep and their re-supply column would be incredibly short, not to mention there is no real heavy US presence in the area. Real sanctions can't be implemented since the EU has a huge dependence on Russian natural gas. Even if you do what one posted suggested and build LNG terminals and start importing from elsewhere, it would take far too long and by the time you found a way to replace 30% of imports, the EU would be ruined. In the meantime, Russia will just shift that supply to the Chinese, which will remove their need to import from Western nations.

  9. #9

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    I am not sure of the entire situation, but I see it as more of the "pendulum" swinging back the other direction.

    Russia and the Cold war era deteriorated and collapsed. The fringe groups separated and became "independent". Now the "separatist" governments have failed in achieving a stable government and some portions are going back to the "soviet" block aspect.

    I guess it comes down to the old adage of "follow the money". Crimea is a major port for the Russians and they seized the opportunity.

    Whether this is the correct move or not is still to be settled. I would be more concerned about the stability of Europe finances, and what is going on in the Pakistan/India/Asia area.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by RetrieverPup View Post
    Nothing meaningful is going to happen to Russia because of this, Putin should actually be commended for how he pulled this off.

    He manged to turn a Western backed coup of an elected government into a situation that favors Russia and will create very little real backlash. Russia now has permanent access to a warm water port that can accommodate their largest ships and a buffer against US and NATO expansion in the region. There can be no outside military intervention since you'd be fighting right on Russia's doorstep and their re-supply column would be incredibly short, not to mention there is no real heavy US presence in the area. Real sanctions can't be implemented since the EU has a huge dependence on Russian natural gas. Even if you do what one posted suggested and build LNG terminals and start importing from elsewhere, it would take far too long and by the time you found a way to replace 30% of imports, the EU would be ruined. In the meantime, Russia will just shift that supply to the Chinese, which will remove their need to import from Western nations.
    This is a pretty reasonable evaluation. I think Russia correctly predicted that it was safe to make this move and that there isn't enough attachment to Crimea for the rest of the world to effectively unite against it. That said, this could end up having long term consequences for Russia. I suspect, for example, that Russian businesses will have a lot of trouble doing business with other European countries and America. Anyone that has the luxury of choosing between a Russian associate and a non-Russian associate might be influenced by these events to go non-Russian.

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