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Thread: Intrade politics anyone?

  1. #1

    Default Intrade politics anyone?

    Alright, so for those of you who don't know about Intrade, it's this website where you can trade stock based on the likelihood of future events. Each event has a likelihood between 0.01% and 99.9%, which corresponds to a share value between $0.01 and $9.99. If the event happens, then any shares owned will turn in to $10.00 cash, and if the event doesn't happen, the shares will become worthless.

    There's a pretty wide variety of things to trade on; everything from the "Isreal will bomb Iran before January 1st 2013" (17.0% ) to "The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close above 12000 at the end of 2012" (87.9%). But the most popular category to bet on is Politics. "Obama will win the presidential election" is at 79.0% right now, and I was thinking of buying some shares, just for fun.

    Anyways, has anyone had any experience working with Intrade?

    For those of you who haven't already, I urge you check it out, especially if you've got a good grasp on politics or stock trading.

  2. #2

    Default

    I'm horribly sorry but this seems like either a scam or otherwise morally repugnant. I mean betting on some country taking thousands of lives is just wrong. If you want to bet on the outcome of elections there are probably way better options available.
    I am however interested in what the "stocks" are for the 12/12/2012 or 21/12/2012 apocalypse.

  3. #3

  4. #4

    Default Intrade politics anyone?



    Quote Originally Posted by Petr89 View Post
    I'm horribly sorry but this seems like either a scam or otherwise morally repugnant. I mean betting on some country taking thousands of lives is just wrong. If you want to bet on the outcome of elections there are probably way better options available.
    I am however interested in what the "stocks" are for the 12/12/2012 or 21/12/2012 apocalypse.
    Not a scam. Intrade is very well known and is apparently a really good predictor of political races due to it's model.

    Funnily enough, they didn't have stocks on wether or not the founder of Intrade would die trying to summit Everest (he did indeed die on the way up) but I think that was due to a lack of interest rather than for moralistic reasons.

    Not sure how legal that kind of site is in North America, but it's definitively legal in Ireland, where the site is based.

  5. #5

  6. #6

    Default

    I've heard this web before I mean they have many bets like they will disccover Jimmy Hoffa Body by..., JFK killer, Roswell Aliens, But that is small chance so mostly people just bet into politics seems it's more likely to happen.

  7. #7

    Default

    I tend to reference Intrade quite a bit when trying to get a grasp of the odds for political outcomes, because it's the largest true market indicator available for such. That said, given all the obvious opportunities for arbitrage, I'm inclined to think it's not a particularly well-developed market.

    Intrade's markets outside of politics have uselessly low volume for the most part.

    I've considered getting in on the action, but I don't really have the money to do so. I've frankly seen some sure bets with margins of 1-4 percentage points available at times, e.g. "Ron Paul to win GOP nomination" at 1.5% after Romney had it wrapped up, the sum of "Obama to win President" and "Romney to win President" adding up to 96-97% at times. There's clearly opportunity there if you have the money to make it worth the fixed monthly fee with essentially no risk.

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