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Thread: Where I see polls going in this election.

  1. #1

    Default Where I see polls going in this election.

    Here's the way I'm seeing it. Hillary is up by about 6 points on average with some polls pitching a 9-10 point lead over Trump. The issue is that Trump hasn't even started putting out attack ads yet but Hillary has been spending millions on them.
    The unfortunate bit for Hill is that Trump has bigger piles of dirt on her than she has on him.
    Within the next month or two, The Donald will start putting out attack ads against Hillary and in comparison it'd be like she brought a baseball bat to a rocket launcher fight.

  2. #2

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    I wouldn't say that Trump has more dirt on Hillary. There's a very good reason he hasn't released his income tax results. His son has revealed that most of the Trump assets are in Russian money. The Washington Post revealed that after Donald Trump's fourth bankruptcy, none of the U. S. banks would risk lending him anymore money, so Trump contacted Putin and borrowed money from Russian banks.

    I would guess the Democrats will unleash this closer to November. I believe it would disqualify Trump from the presidency.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Themanswifesman View Post
    The unfortunate bit for Hill is that Trump has bigger piles of dirt on her than she has on him.
    This would require:

    (A) new information to be found on Hillary Clinton that is damaging despite the Clintons living under a microscope for several decades making it difficult to find new information
    (B) that new information being damaging in a way that the many previous non-scandals and overblown scandals haven't, which is that much harder due to the number of times Republicans have cried wolf
    (C) the Trump campaign, which is dysfunctional and a fraction of the size that campaigns have generally scaled to at this point, to have done amazing opposition research that found that new information
    (D) for that new information on Clinton to be deeper than the endless well of sleaziness in Trump's past business dealings, which the Clinton campaign has almost certainly gone to the ends of the earth to research since it is a well-oiled machine.




    None of those things are likely.

  4. #4

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    Just a few random thoughts from an upstairs neighbour in Canada:

    I think it's going to be a mindf*ck trying to predict how this election will play out.

    Both parties have advantages and disadvantages. I think the debates will finally pit the nominees against each other rather than their own parties. I think Clinton should perform better in the debates because they tend to focus on policy issues, and she is a policy wonk, while Trump is somewhat devoid of policy and becomes a danger to himself and his party when he doesn't have a teleprompter.

    I think the Democrats will also come up with creative new ways to bait Trump, I believe this was a tactic they used successfully at the DNC when they invited Khizr Khan to speak against Trump, who took the bait and attacked a Gold Star family. Republicans are disgusted with his response and distancing themselves from his comments. Clinton got a significant bump in the polls after the DNC and I think Trump was partly responsible due to his attack of Khan.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...a-khan/493805/

    Regardless of his money, Trump can't avoid putting his foot in his mouth. He got off message by attacking the family when he could have attacked Clinton instead for supporting the Iraq war where Khan's son was killed.

    I hope as well that Americans will direct their attention to the significant issues that concern their daily lives, such as the economy, employment, and health care. These are the issues that affect people everyday, but Trump has deflected them by focussing instead on 'hot button issues,' such as terrorism and immigration, and campaigning on fear and hysteria. If the economy becomes a central issue, then it should be remembered that Obama walked into the worst inbox of work to do following two terms of Bush, and guided the country through one the worst global recessions ever.

    Clinton will likely attract the majority of the ethnic votes as well, particularly Latinos and African Americans, and I think the majority of women are still pretty repulsed by Trump's comments about women. Trump's support still seems to come from older white men.

    Clinton's problem is that people don't like her. She's not a personable speaker and certainly doesn't have her husband's skills as an orator, or Michelle Obama's heartfelt delivery (her speech at the DNC is well worth plagiarizing). There's also the Benghazi issue, and the whole party must be dreading any more headlines with the word 'e-mail' in them. She also doesn't come across as genuine to lifting people out of poverty, with questionable money being filtered through the Clinton foundation, and her association with Wall Street.

    I think both nominees have the same problem in that they are not unanimously supported by their respective party because of all the baggage and fear of what they will do in power. However, people tend to get out and vote more when they are motivated and inspired by a candidate, rather than just voting against a candidate. Trump may have a slight advantage here in that he has a loyal, enthusiastic fan base that will get out and vote for him even if they have to jump over hell to get to the voting booth. At the same time, there will likely be Republicans that will simply stay home rather than support Trump.

    Clinton could have a worse problem since it remains to be seen how many of Sanders' supporters will support her after the DNC. He attracted a lot of youth to his campaign who were devastated after his loss, especially with the WikiLeaks e-mails being released the day before the convention showing their strong support for Clinton and disdain for Sanders. I think this was a serious punch in the gut at a critical time. There is still a large segment of the population who want to live long enough to elect the first woman president, but it remains to be seen how that will influence or motivate people to vote.

    When there are so many variables and different polls showing either candidate in the lead, then it's quite possible the outcome will hinge on which party is the most successful in getting their supporters out to the voting booth. I think this is where experience and organization are crucial, and the advantage goes to Clinton's campaign.

    Overall, I'd give a slight edge to Clinton, but I'm not ready to place my bet at this time.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fruitkitty View Post
    None of those things are likely.
    You also said it was nearly impossible for Trump to come close to the nomination.

    And yet here we are. At the time, you suggested I should make my way to Vegas to place a wager based on my confidence in Trump at the time. I regret my inability to make that trek at that point in time, 'cause I'd already be pretty happy.

    The traditional punditry and those relying on it this election season have been stupendously wrong and, in the case of certain data-aggregating pundits, also hilariously bad at their jobs. Time after time, whatever thing Trump's said (or the media's concocted, ala the Russia connection) will certainly be his undoing, according to the usual suspects. Yet time after time, Trump remains standing. Time after time, the usual suspects do their damnedest to hide whatever scandal is befalling Hillary, yet we all seem to know about it.

    Hell, here we are, and Trump's poll numbers have floated in that 40-50 percent range without flagging for practically ever. The only thing that affects his margin compared to Hillary is Hillary's poll numbers.

    We've seen the "can't rely on the polls, it's still months away" thing, only to a couple of short weeks later see the brand newest polling paraded about as the most definitive thing since Moses with the tablets. We've seen the "it's just the post convention bounce, it doesn't matter" thing two weeks ago, only to now see the "ha HA, see, the convention did it!" thing. Then you read the methodology of some of the recent polls, like the CNN poll where they somehow had the audacity to suggest that the 18-35 year old cohort isn't large enough to statistically represent the population at large, despite 20-35 year olds making up 20.6 percent of the U.S. population.

    I've worked in television and corporate communications, and I've been following politics for a long time. All I'm gonna say is that even though it's all there for everyone to see, I think a lot of people are going to be surprised come November 9.

  6. #6
    Misatoismywaifu

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    https://youtu.be/qfj5s5r7_14

    Noteworthy "dirt" from Clinton.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by TenaciousFortitude View Post
    https://youtu.be/qfj5s5r7_14

    Noteworthy "dirt" from Clinton.
    Both candidates have a similar about of dirt if you step back and look at everything, the only difference is Trump might actually start a war with his poor foreign policy experience extreme short temper.

    That is what really seals the deal for me. Well that and the overt bigotry...

  8. #8
    Misatoismywaifu

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    Really wish Gary Johnson had a chance. They're both going to continue the creating tomorrow's enemies by arming "moderates" and destabilizing countries like Syria.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by TenaciousFortitude View Post
    Really wish Gary Johnson had a chance. They're both going to continue the creating tomorrow's enemies by arming "moderates" and destabilizing countries like Syria.
    Same, the only issue with Johnson is that he is libertarian and they have some crazy policies. The bright side is his policies are too crazy to pass and he is actually a decent human being. Those were the qualities I like about Sanders who had the same problem. Policies too crazy to pass but a decent human being to lead our country. I could get behind Johnson, but I won't be voting for him unless he really steps up in exposure.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogboy View Post
    I wouldn't say that Trump has more dirt on Hillary. There's a very good reason he hasn't released his income tax results. His son has revealed that most of the Trump assets are in Russian money. The Washington Post revealed that after Donald Trump's fourth bankruptcy, none of the U. S. banks would risk lending him anymore money, so Trump contacted Putin and borrowed money from Russian banks.

    I would guess the Democrats will unleash this closer to November. I believe it would disqualify Trump from the presidency.
    Citations, please.

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